Will the election being over (finally!) help the economy?
There have been plenty of stories written about how confidence will be restored in the markets (stock market and housing market) once the election is over. But does this really make any sense? Are there other issues at play?
There has been weak economic data lately for sure. But data from September and October was expected to be very weak because of the grinding halt in the credit markets during this time. And when you combat that with an unprecedented level of government stimulus both through fiscal and monetary policy to get the economy moving again, the real "important" data will be that from November, December, and January to see if the economy can throw off the "credit crunch" as a hiccup and get back rolling again in the short term. But even if that occurs, there are still major, fundamental long term issues surrounding the financial and housing markets that must be worked through. Never mind the enormous deficit we are staring in the face right now.
Clearly, no matter who is elected, the new President will have their first 100 days filled with economic challenges and the planning that is required to get past them in the long term. Many of these issues will not have a quick and easy fix. There will be some battles, but at least we should have a clearer picture of which direction he is taking us philosophically. That, in and of itself, will take some uncertainty out of the markets.
In my view, if everyone is talking about confidence being restored when the election is over, then it probably will become true - classic self-fulfilling prophecy. Even though neither candidate thrilled me much, it will be nice to have the never ending campaign cycle over with. It's just much, much too long, forcing the two parties to basically go to "war" with each other rather than sit down and accomplish practical governance for the good of the people (remember when that was the job of government? yeah, neither do I). The level of vitriol is embarrassing, and I believe it to be a weight on the country and the economy that will be lifted somewhat after the election today. Then we'll have a few years to actually try to accomplish a few things before it occurs all over again. How far we can get over that time will remain to be seen....