The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for July 2008 shows a gain of 0.2% from June 2008 in Boston. Note: One thing to remember is that the Case-Schiller index only measures single family homes, so "Boston" really means Greater Boston metro area - not downtown Boston.
From the Real Time Economics Blog at the Wall Street Journal:
The other month-to-month gainers included Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Minneapolis, all of which have reported positive returns for three months or more.
(About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)
| Metro Area | July 2008 | Year-over-year change | |
| Atlanta | 125.23 | 0.4% | -8.2% |
| Boston | 162.58 | 0.2% | -5.4% |
| Charlotte | 133.20 | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| Chicago | 149.60 | -0.4% | -10% |
| Cleveland | 109.35 | -0.3% | -7.8% |
| Dallas | 123.16 | 0.6% | -2.5% |
| Denver | 132.67 | 0.8% | -4.7% |
| Detroit | 93.21 | 0.6% | -16.7% |
| Las Vegas | 154.15 | -2.8% | -29.9% |
| Los Angeles | 192.55 | -1.6% | -26.2% |
| Miami | 186.84 | -1.6% | -28.2% |
| Minneapolis | 143.43 | 1.3% | -13.1% |
| New York | 192.92 | -0.8% | -7.4% |
| Phoenix | 149.09 | -2.7% | -29.3% |
| Portland | 174.21 | -0.5% | -6.6% |
| San Diego | 172.20 | -1.8% | -25.0% |
| San Francisco | 156.88 | -1.8% | -24.8% |
| Seattle | 176.51 | -1.0% | -8.2% |
| Tampa | 175.07 | 0.0% | -19.4% |
| Washington | 195.49 | -0.8% | -15.8% |
So from June to July, greater Boston single family prices are up 0.2%, and from last year to this year, prices are down 5.4%. But when you step back and take a slightly longer perspective, you see prices in Boston since the year 2000 are up almost 63%. We have certainly given back some gains over the past couple years but are well ahead of the game since only 2000.
And unlike much of the country, Boston has been showing a lot of positive market data over the past couple months (and some negative data of course - clearly the road is still very rocky). Anecdotally on the street at the local level, we had been seeing a nice increase in activity as well, until the credit crisis of the past few weeks. Hopefully we'll get a stabilization bill quickly to restore some confidence and this will only be a hiccup in an improving market over the next year or so. Even through the crisis though, I've been surprised that activity has remained somewhat stable downtown. Buyers are still making offers and properties are still going under agreement. It seems a bit slower than the few weeks prior, but I was expecting much worse. Of course the downtown condo market has been remarkably resilient through the entire housing downturn.
Are we at or close to a bottom in Boston? It's very difficult to say, especially with the turbulence over the past few weeks, but a lot of the data seems to be indicating that possibility.
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