What’s Really Causing the Real Estate Inventory Shortage in Boston?

What’s Really Causing the Real Estate Inventory Shortage in Boston?

urban stroller in Boston

photo courtesy of Universal Hub (“urban assault stroller”)

Baby strollers.

What??

Yeah, you read that right. Baby strollers.

So I suppose that may require just a little explanation.  🙂  When I first moved into the South End ten years ago, it was very much a vibrant neighborhood, filled with a diverse mix of people – age, ethnic background, sexual orientation, etc.

And it still is, thankfully.

But now it’s even more diverse in age than ever. There’s a new demographic group in town.  Every day as I walk down the street to grab a morning coffee at Appleton Cafe or The Buttery, I see baby strollers. And more baby strollers. Babies everywhere!

So what do babies have to do with it?

More babies in the city shows a clear preference shift towards urban family living over the past 5 to 10 years. It has even started to up in the census numbers:

  • In 2000 in the Back Bay & Beacon Hill there were 559 children under age 5 in the 2000 Census. In 2010, there were 880!
  • Similarly in the South End, in 2000 there were 1209 kids. In 2010 it was 1779!

Downtown Boston saw a jump of  62% in the toddler population from 2000-2010.  (tweet this!)

toddler population in Boston

Anecdotally from my own conversations with friends and clients, it appears to be a trend that is growing.  Ten years ago most of our clients would get married and almost immediately start thinking about moving to the ‘burbs when they planned to have kids. Now more of our clients choose to stay in the city as long as possible – typically at least until their kid(s) are ready to start school.

Even more evidence can be seen as fantastic local toddler boutiques have opened and grown in downtown neighborhoods – places like Tadpole in the South End, Mulberry Road in the Back Bay, and The Red Wagon in Beacon Hill.

And why wouldn’t you want to live in the city?  Even with a young, small child, living space isn’t usually the major constraint (or at least not something you can’t figure out how to deal with). Day care is about the same (expensive!) cost anywhere near Boston and school systems aren’t (yet) a major concern with a toddler. Convenience – to job, to restaurants, to parks, to shops, to friends – is taking priority over more living space. Especially as more and more people are working longer hours, avoiding a crazy commute and other suburban inconveniences is helping parents with toddlers actually spend more time with their families.

How babies impact Boston real estate inventory

Now that the economy and Boston real estate market is in improvement mode, this is a trend that is also having an impact on downtown Boston real estate.  Demand is substantially up – evidenced by extremely low inventory, increasing prices, and sales transaction volume spikes (which would be even higher if there were more supply available).  Based on this trend of more young parents staying in the city longer, it only serves to strengthen demand in downtown neighborhoods. With a relatively static supply of homes in places like Beacon Hill, Back Bay, and South End, this demand will keep inventory low as demand outpaces supply and continue to put upward pressure on home values.

 

 

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